FOFViewForm Object
(
    [form:protected] => FOFForm Object
        (
            [model:protected] => LegacyinterfaceModelCommentaries Object
                (
                    [default_behaviors:protected] => Array
                        (
                            [0] => filters
                            [1] => access
                        )

                    [__state_set:protected] => 1
                    [_db:protected] => JDatabaseDriverMysqli Object
                        (
                            [name] => mysqli
                            [nameQuote:protected] => `
                            [nullDate:protected] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00
                            [_database:JDatabaseDriver:private] => joomla
                            [connection:protected] => mysqli Object
                                (
                                    [affected_rows] => 1
                                    [client_info] => mysqlnd 5.0.11-dev - 20120503 - $Id: 15d5c781cfcad91193dceae1d2cdd127674ddb3e $
                                    [client_version] => 50011
                                    [connect_errno] => 0
                                    [connect_error] => 
                                    [errno] => 0
                                    [error] => 
                                    [error_list] => Array
                                        (
                                        )

                                    [field_count] => 1
                                    [host_info] => Localhost via UNIX socket
                                    [info] => 
                                    [insert_id] => 0
                                    [server_info] => 5.5.46
                                    [server_version] => 50546
                                    [stat] => Uptime: 3669449  Threads: 1  Questions: 769780  Slow queries: 0  Opens: 75  Flush tables: 1  Open tables: 68  Queries per second avg: 0.209
                                    [sqlstate] => 00000
                                    [protocol_version] => 10
                                    [thread_id] => 63212
                                    [warning_count] => 0
                                )

                            [count:protected] => 17
                            [cursor:protected] => 
                            [debug:protected] => 
                            [limit:protected] => 0
                            [log:protected] => Array
                                (
                                )

                            [timings:protected] => Array
                                (
                                )

                            [callStacks:protected] => Array
                                (
                                )

                            [offset:protected] => 0
                            [options:protected] => Array
                                (
                                    [driver] => mysqli
                                    [host] => localhost
                                    [user] => joomlauser
                                    [password] => default
                                    [database] => joomla
                                    [prefix] => ap_
                                    [select] => 1
                                    [port] => 3306
                                    [socket] => 
                                )

                            [sql:protected] => 
SELECT COUNT(*)
FROM (
SELECT `#__legacyinterface_commentaries`.*
FROM `#__legacyinterface_commentaries`
WHERE (`access` IN ('1','1'))) AS a
                            [tablePrefix:protected] => ap_
                            [utf:protected] => 1
                            [errorNum:protected] => 0
                            [errorMsg:protected] => 
                            [transactionDepth:protected] => 0
                            [disconnectHandlers:protected] => Array
                                (
                                )

                        )

                    [event_after_delete:protected] => onContentAfterDelete
                    [event_after_save:protected] => onContentAfterSave
                    [event_before_delete:protected] => onContentBeforeDelete
                    [event_before_save:protected] => onContentBeforeSave
                    [event_change_state:protected] => onContentChangeState
                    [event_clean_cache:protected] => 
                    [id_list:protected] => Array
                        (
                            [0] => 0
                        )

                    [id:protected] => 0
                    [input:protected] => FOFInput Object
                        (
                            [options:protected] => Array
                                (
                                )

                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                (
                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                        (
                                        )

                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                        (
                                        )

                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                        (
                                            [0] => applet
                                            [1] => body
                                            [2] => bgsound
                                            [3] => base
                                            [4] => basefont
                                            [5] => embed
                                            [6] => frame
                                            [7] => frameset
                                            [8] => head
                                            [9] => html
                                            [10] => id
                                            [11] => iframe
                                            [12] => ilayer
                                            [13] => layer
                                            [14] => link
                                            [15] => meta
                                            [16] => name
                                            [17] => object
                                            [18] => script
                                            [19] => style
                                            [20] => title
                                            [21] => xml
                                        )

                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                        (
                                            [0] => action
                                            [1] => background
                                            [2] => codebase
                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                        )

                                )

                            [data:protected] => Array
                                (
                                    [start] => 2420
                                    [limitstart] => 2420
                                    [option] => com_legacyinterface
                                    [view] => commentaries
                                    [Itemid] => 616
                                    [layout] => 
                                    [task] => browse
                                    [directionTable] => asc
                                    [sortTable] => published_on
                                    [filter_order] => published_on
                                    [filter_order_Dir] => desc
                                    [savestate] => 1
                                    [base_path] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface
                                )

                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                (
                                    [get] => JInput Object
                                        (
                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                (
                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => applet
                                                            [1] => body
                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                            [3] => base
                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                            [5] => embed
                                                            [6] => frame
                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                            [8] => head
                                                            [9] => html
                                                            [10] => id
                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                            [13] => layer
                                                            [14] => link
                                                            [15] => meta
                                                            [16] => name
                                                            [17] => object
                                                            [18] => script
                                                            [19] => style
                                                            [20] => title
                                                            [21] => xml
                                                        )

                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => action
                                                            [1] => background
                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                        )

                                                )

                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                    [start] => 2420
                                                )

                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                    [get] => JInput Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                    [start] => 2420
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [post] => JInput Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [cookie] => JInputCookie Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                    [get] => JInput Object
                                                                        (
                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [start] => 2420
                                                                                )

                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                        )

                                                                    [post] => JInput Object
                                                                        (
                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                        )

                                                                    [cookie] => JInputCookie Object
                                                                        (
                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                        )

                                                                    [files] => JInputFiles Object
                                                                        (
                                                                            [decodedData:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [get] => JInput Object
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                    [start] => 2420
                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [post] => JInput Object
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [cookie] => JInputCookie Object
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [files] => JInputFiles Object
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [decodedData:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                                (
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                                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
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                                                                                    [server] => JInput Object
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                                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
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                                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
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                                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
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                                                                                    [session] => JInput Object
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                                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                                (
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                                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
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                                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
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                                                                                                            [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object
                                                                                                                (
                                                                                                                    [data:protected] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                                            [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                                                (
                                                                                                                                    [commentaries] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                                                        (
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                                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                                )

                                                                                                            [user] => JUser Object
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                                                                                                                    [isRoot:protected] => 
                                                                                                                    [id] => 0
                                                                                                                    [name] => 
                                                                                                                    [username] => 
                                                                                                                    [email] => 
                                                                                                                    [password] => 
                                                                                                                    [password_clear] => 
                                                                                                                    [block] => 
                                                                                                                    [sendEmail] => 0
                                                                                                                    [registerDate] => 
                                                                                                                    [lastvisitDate] => 
                                                                                                                    [activation] => 
                                                                                                                    [params] => 
                                                                                                                    [groups] => Array
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                                                                                                                    [guest] => 1
                                                                                                                    [lastResetTime] => 
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                                                                                                                    [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object
                                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                                            [data:protected] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                                                (
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                                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                                    [_authGroups:protected] => Array
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                                                                                                                    [_authActions:protected] => 
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                                                                                                                    [_errors:protected] => Array
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                                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
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                                                                                    [jrequest] => JInput Object
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                                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
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                                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
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                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
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                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
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                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
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                                                                    [server] => JInput Object
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                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
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                                                                                    [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8
                                                                                    [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT
                                                                                    [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin
                                                                                    [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => 
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                                                                                    [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http
                                                                                    [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => 
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                                                                                    [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv
                                                                                    [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php
                                                                                    [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764
                                                                                    [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1
                                                                                    [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0
                                                                                    [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET
                                                                                    [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420
                                                                                    [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420
                                                                                    [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php
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                                                                                    [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875
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                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
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                                                                        )

                                                                    [session] => JInput Object
                                                                        (
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                                                                                (
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                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                (
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                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

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                                                                                        (
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                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [__default] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [session.counter] => 1
                                                                                            [session.timer.start] => 1513359073
                                                                                            [session.timer.last] => 1513359073
                                                                                            [session.timer.now] => 1513359073
                                                                                            [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/)
                                                                                            [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                    [data:protected] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                                (
                                                                                                                    [commentaries] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                                            [limitstart] => 2420
                                                                                                                            [filter_order] => published_on
                                                                                                                            [filter_order_Dir] => desc
                                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                                )

                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                )

                                                                                            [user] => JUser Object
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                    [isRoot:protected] => 
                                                                                                    [id] => 0
                                                                                                    [name] => 
                                                                                                    [username] => 
                                                                                                    [email] => 
                                                                                                    [password] => 
                                                                                                    [password_clear] => 
                                                                                                    [block] => 
                                                                                                    [sendEmail] => 0
                                                                                                    [registerDate] => 
                                                                                                    [lastvisitDate] => 
                                                                                                    [activation] => 
                                                                                                    [params] => 
                                                                                                    [groups] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => 9
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [guest] => 1
                                                                                                    [lastResetTime] => 
                                                                                                    [resetCount] => 
                                                                                                    [requireReset] => 
                                                                                                    [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [data:protected] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                                (
                                                                                                                )

                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [_authGroups:protected] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => 1
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [_authLevels:protected] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [0] => 1
                                                                                                            [1] => 1
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [_authActions:protected] => 
                                                                                                    [_errorMsg:protected] => 
                                                                                                    [_errors:protected] => Array
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                    [aid] => 0
                                                                                                )

                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                        )

                                                                    [jrequest] => JInput Object
                                                                        (
                                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                                (
                                                                                )

                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [files] => JInputFiles Object
                                                        (
                                                            [decodedData:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [env] => JInput Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [request] => JInput Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                    [start] => 2420
                                                                    [limitstart] => 2420
                                                                    [option] => com_legacyinterface
                                                                    [view] => commentaries
                                                                    [Itemid] => 616
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [server] => JInput Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                    [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => 
                                                                    [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv
                                                                    [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate
                                                                    [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/)
                                                                    [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8
                                                                    [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT
                                                                    [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin
                                                                    [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => 
                                                                    [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31
                                                                    [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv
                                                                    [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29
                                                                    [SERVER_PORT] => 80
                                                                    [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95
                                                                    [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms
                                                                    [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http
                                                                    [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => 
                                                                    [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms
                                                                    [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv
                                                                    [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php
                                                                    [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764
                                                                    [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1
                                                                    [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0
                                                                    [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET
                                                                    [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420
                                                                    [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420
                                                                    [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php
                                                                    [PHP_SELF] => /index.php
                                                                    [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875
                                                                    [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [session] => JInput Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                    [__default] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [session.counter] => 1
                                                                            [session.timer.start] => 1513359073
                                                                            [session.timer.last] => 1513359073
                                                                            [session.timer.now] => 1513359073
                                                                            [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/)
                                                                            [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [data:protected] => stdClass Object
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                    [commentaries] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                            [limitstart] => 2420
                                                                                                            [filter_order] => published_on
                                                                                                            [filter_order_Dir] => desc
                                                                                                        )

                                                                                                )

                                                                                        )

                                                                                )

                                                                            [user] => JUser Object
                                                                                (
                                                                                    [isRoot:protected] => 
                                                                                    [id] => 0
                                                                                    [name] => 
                                                                                    [username] => 
                                                                                    [email] => 
                                                                                    [password] => 
                                                                                    [password_clear] => 
                                                                                    [block] => 
                                                                                    [sendEmail] => 0
                                                                                    [registerDate] => 
                                                                                    [lastvisitDate] => 
                                                                                    [activation] => 
                                                                                    [params] => 
                                                                                    [groups] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => 9
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [guest] => 1
                                                                                    [lastResetTime] => 
                                                                                    [resetCount] => 
                                                                                    [requireReset] => 
                                                                                    [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [data:protected] => stdClass Object
                                                                                                (
                                                                                                )

                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [_authGroups:protected] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => 1
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [_authLevels:protected] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                            [0] => 1
                                                                                            [1] => 1
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [_authActions:protected] => 
                                                                                    [_errorMsg:protected] => 
                                                                                    [_errors:protected] => Array
                                                                                        (
                                                                                        )

                                                                                    [aid] => 0
                                                                                )

                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                    [jrequest] => JInput Object
                                                        (
                                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                                (
                                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                        )

                                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => applet
                                                                            [1] => body
                                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                                            [3] => base
                                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                                            [5] => embed
                                                                            [6] => frame
                                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                                            [8] => head
                                                                            [9] => html
                                                                            [10] => id
                                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                                            [13] => layer
                                                                            [14] => link
                                                                            [15] => meta
                                                                            [16] => name
                                                                            [17] => object
                                                                            [18] => script
                                                                            [19] => style
                                                                            [20] => title
                                                                            [21] => xml
                                                                        )

                                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                                        (
                                                                            [0] => action
                                                                            [1] => background
                                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                                        )

                                                                )

                                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                                (
                                                                )

                                                        )

                                                )

                                        )

                                    [post] => JInput Object
                                        (
                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                (
                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => applet
                                                            [1] => body
                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                            [3] => base
                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                            [5] => embed
                                                            [6] => frame
                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                            [8] => head
                                                            [9] => html
                                                            [10] => id
                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                            [13] => layer
                                                            [14] => link
                                                            [15] => meta
                                                            [16] => name
                                                            [17] => object
                                                            [18] => script
                                                            [19] => style
                                                            [20] => title
                                                            [21] => xml
                                                        )

                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => action
                                                            [1] => background
                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                        )

                                                )

                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                        )

                                    [cookie] => JInputCookie Object
                                        (
                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                (
                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => applet
                                                            [1] => body
                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                            [3] => base
                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                            [5] => embed
                                                            [6] => frame
                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                            [8] => head
                                                            [9] => html
                                                            [10] => id
                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                            [13] => layer
                                                            [14] => link
                                                            [15] => meta
                                                            [16] => name
                                                            [17] => object
                                                            [18] => script
                                                            [19] => style
                                                            [20] => title
                                                            [21] => xml
                                                        )

                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => action
                                                            [1] => background
                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                        )

                                                )

                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                        )

                                    [files] => JInputFiles Object
                                        (
                                            [decodedData:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                (
                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => applet
                                                            [1] => body
                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                            [3] => base
                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                            [5] => embed
                                                            [6] => frame
                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                            [8] => head
                                                            [9] => html
                                                            [10] => id
                                                            [11] => iframe
                                                            [12] => ilayer
                                                            [13] => layer
                                                            [14] => link
                                                            [15] => meta
                                                            [16] => name
                                                            [17] => object
                                                            [18] => script
                                                            [19] => style
                                                            [20] => title
                                                            [21] => xml
                                                        )

                                                    [attrBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => action
                                                            [1] => background
                                                            [2] => codebase
                                                            [3] => dynsrc
                                                            [4] => lowsrc
                                                        )

                                                )

                                            [data:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [inputs:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                        )

                                    [env] => JInput Object
                                        (
                                            [options:protected] => Array
                                                (
                                                )

                                            [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object
                                                (
                                                    [tagsArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [attrArray] => Array
                                                        (
                                                        )

                                                    [tagsMethod] => 0
                                                    [attrMethod] => 0
                                                    [xssAuto] => 1
                                                    [tagBlacklist] => Array
                                                        (
                                                            [0] => applet
                                                            [1] => body
                                                            [2] => bgsound
                                                            [3] => base
                                                            [4] => basefont
                                                            [5] => embed
                                                            [6] => frame
                                                            [7] => frameset
                                                            [8] => head
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                                    [title] => ‘Hot’ Money’s Fast Exit Cools Emerging Markets
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Capital flight from emerging markets has been accelerating in recent weeks ($6 billion alone in the week ending February 5). Turkey is the poster child, but the exodus is also happening in India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and others – mostly from equity markets. This “hot money” is moving out over concerns that asset bubbles have built up, and that emerging market economic growth is now slowing. The slowdown is partly a result of tighter money in the wake of the Fed’s tapering plans and a decelerating economy in China, many believe. To better understand the risks to the global financial system, Knowledge@Wharton spoke with Wharton finance professor Franklin Allen in this podcast.

An edited transcript of the conversation follows.

Knowledge@Wharton: To give a bit of context, there has been a lot of capital flight out of emerging markets in recent weeks. Turkey is the poster child, but it is also happening in countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa. For a long time, strong economic growth in emerging markets kept that money flowing in. Now, those growth prospects — relative to the more developed countries — look to be sagging, and that money is starting to rush out. And with financial liberalization, that often means there are fewer capital controls to prevent it from leaving quickly.

Some emerging market central banks are responding by raising interest rates to try and keep the money in. Of course, that has a big downside: Higher rates make it tougher for businesses to get loans. And so far, those higher interest rates do not seem to be doing much to keep it in. This is mostly equity money leaving at this point. Eventually, that could bleed into debt issues.

All of this is partly a response [many observers say] to the Fed’s aim to tighten the money supply — to taper quantitative easing — and also to the slowdown in China, which could affect emerging markets very heavily. Is this the dynamic that you see out there? And, if so, what is causing it in your view? And how far along in the process do you think we are?

Franklin Allen: I think it is important to start with a somewhat broader view of what is happening. What happened over the last few years is that a lot of money went from low interest rate countries — particularly the U.S., but also from Europe and Japan and other places — to the emerging markets. These are the so-called carry trades that we have heard so much about. And they basically distorted a lot of asset prices in those countries. Just to take one example, if you look at what has happened to real estate prices in Brazil, they have rocketed the last two or three years. And yet that does not seem to be the result of how well Brazil is doing because actually they have had problems because the money flowing in has pushed up the exchange rate and made it difficult for Brazilian manufacturers, for example, to compete. Brazil has actually had fairly slow growth.

I think this is all a part of what many people have worried about, which is there have been what people loosely call asset price bubbles. Now that things are tightening up, what we are beginning to see is some withdrawal, some worrying about whether prices are correct or not. And this is the start of a process, which will certainly — to some degree at least –continue in the emerging countries, but will also gradually spread to other assets as we go further and further into tapering, and then eventually have interest rates start to rise.

Knowledge@Wharton: Do you think this is essentially a cyclical thing and that it is going to end up being an orderly take down — a natural process — for financial assets to flow back and forth to where they get the highest return?

Allen: No, I do not think that this is cyclical, although there is obviously a part of it that is…. We have had asset prices distorted by, what is now many years of these low interest rates. And the notion was, well, the emerging countries should be able to sterilize the inflows and deal with them, but in fact it is very difficult to do. These rises in asset prices, particularly real estate in many countries, if they are reversed it is going to cause financial stability problems in the same way we had in the U.S., Spain and Ireland. I think that those are the dangers. The trouble is we do not really know what asset prices should be because we have had these very easy money policies for so long now.

Knowledge@Wharton: For these countries I guess the danger is that they try to raise interest rates to prevent capital leaving so fast. That hurts their economy further. I suppose there is a danger of a run on their currencies similar to the kinds of things that happened during the Asian financial crisis [in the late 1990s]. Not to say that it is at that stage, or necessarily even heading there, but the dynamic seems to be similar. And then, of course, once the markets start to raid one country, then they start to look at who the next victim is and you get this domino effect. How big of a risk is that kind of thing? And could you just talk about what those risks look like right now?

Allen: Well, again, I think there are financial stability risks as you raise interest rates. And Turkey raised them a lot, but other countries raised them varying amounts. But as you start seeing big raises in interest rates, long-term assets are going to fall in price. And, if it is real estate and the banks lend against that real estate, then that causes problems in the banks.

All of these things accumulate and people starting to wonder whether they should get their money out now. And then that creates the dynamic, which you just described, that they are going to expect further falls and we get into these very bad self-fulfilling prophecies…. I think we are still some way away from that, but we have only just started tapering. We aren’t even at the start of any of the developed countries really raising interest rates. And I think we still have a tremendously long way to go before we get back to some kind of normality where we do not have this very easy money in so many countries.

Knowledge@Wharton: Partly what is happening is that financial markets have become so globalized that, of course, they are interacting more than ever. The Fed tapers a little bit and you seem immediately to get results in some of these countries that investors worry may not be able to keep up the returns that they have been getting.

And, yet, there does not seem to be any one country, or any body, that has control over it. It is a real network without any real dominant player. The U.S. is obviously affecting a lot of things, but if this starts to slide out of control who is in charge? Is there anyone in charge? What could be done? Is there something the U.S. can do? Europe? Do they have an interest in this? Or will we have to sit back and watch a mini or maxi Asian financial crisis all over again?

Allen: I think it will be somewhat different than [back] then because there were these severe problems of them having borrowed too much — the firms and banks — in foreign currencies, and the unwinding of that was very unwieldy. Now, fortunately, we have central bank swaps as a way of countering that. Now, the big problem with that is that they did this arrangement [and] they kept China out of that. And I think they should not have done that. They should have had China included. But that is a big antidote for the kinds of very serious problems we had in a global sense.

But I do think that there is a breakdown in monetary coordination. Raghuram Rajan [governor of the Reserve Bank of India, and former chief economic adviser to India's Ministry of Finance and chief economist at the International Monetary Fund] was complaining about this a few days ago. There is a sense in which the global governance mechanism for financial affairs does not work well because the emerging countries are so excluded from it.

And so when they face problems, there is not a good way of trying to solve them, I would say, because the IMF is dominated by the Americans and the Europeans. And then we have this awkward switching back and forth between the G7, G8 and the G20. And it is never quite clear which group is in control. Because the G7 and G8 do not include China or any of these countries like Brazil or India and so on, even though they have massive economies. The G20 does, but they do not really seem to be able to make decisions with so many people around the table so to speak. We do not have a good governance mechanism at the moment to deal with these kinds of issues….

Knowledge@Wharton: A lot the countries that we are talking about here are in Asia. So one thinks back to the Asian financial crisis and you mentioned some similarities and differences. A lot of those countries  have more foreign currency reserves then they did back then, so, they would not be quite so vulnerable to runs on the currency as they once were. Also, the swap mechanism that you mentioned, could you just describe the mechanics of that in simple terms? Is that the central bank swapping assets to balance out where currencies values are?

Allen: The basic idea is, if you have, for example, Korean banks that have liabilities in dollars, they will need to get ahold of dollars. And it may be difficult for them to do that if the markets are in turmoil. Central bank swaps allow for the Fed to provide dollars to the Bank of Korea, which provides some collateral for that. And then the Bank of Korea can lend to its banks in dollars and take on the credit risk. That was a very successful mechanism in the recent financial crisis and it is one of the reasons we did not have stresses of the kind we had in the Asian financial crisis. So that is a big positive.

I think the other big factor is China, because China has these massive foreign exchange reserves. They have $3.66 trillion dollars now. And one of the things that we may start seeing is that, if countries get in to trouble, rather than going to the IMF or some of the other more traditional institutions, they may just go straight to the Peoples Bank of China and ask for loans from them. Now that may in itself lead to some issues about how they get hold of those dollars and so on, but I think we may see some interesting dynamics, which we have not seen before — both politically and economically.

Knowledge@Wharton: Can you discuss which countries are most vulnerable when it comes to their banking systems? And also, given that in places like Europe and the U.S., the banks are probably heavily invested in those countries, what is the potential blow back to them? I am thinking of Europe in particular.

Allen: Clearly there are a lot of cross border flows…. This is the financial stability problem. If you look at countries that have had big real estate booms — and many of them had one — those asset prices may fall significantly. We may see loans go bad and so on. And many of these countries have not only economic problems, but they have political problems. [For example,] in Turkey and Thailand — and India is just about to have a big election — there are a lot of political issues in addition [to economic challenges.]. So that puts the whole system under stress.

Which are the countries with the worst situation? I think it is difficult to say without a very detailed examination. This is not like Europe, where we are going to see an asset quality review this year. It is difficult to predict exactly where the problems will be — but I think it is the countries which have a combination of economic and political problems that will tend to see problems, if they occur. It is not certain that they will occur. Maybe the asset prices have not been that distorted and things will be fine. That certainly seems to be what many market participants and many people in the official sector believe.

Knowledge@Wharton: Maybe a good way to put this whole thing in perspective is to let me ask you to provide what you see as the best case, middle case and worst case scenarios. And could you give some kind of a percentage weighting to each?

Allen: The best-case scenario is that things quiet down. Tapering goes ahead. The Chinese economy does not slow down significantly. They have no problems in the shadow banking system. Interest rates start to rise maybe in a few quarters’ time. That happens slowly over a long period and there are no financial stability problems anywhere. I think that is the rosy scenario. I think that is what the official sector is hoping for.

The moderate scenario is we have a bumpy ride and we see more of these kinds of events that we have seen in the last few days and weeks. But we do not see anything particularly catastrophic. Maybe a few countries have severe problems. Maybe somewhere, like Turkey or Brazil, has a serious problem. But, by and large, we do not have a worldwide sort of financial stability problem.

The worst-case scenario is that asset prices are badly distorted. We see big adjustments and then we see overshooting because of some of the self-fulfilling kinds of prophecies that people start anticipating. Exchange rates are going to go down below what would be the long-run rates … and we have a lot of turmoil and a lot of financial stability issues. And maybe that it is worse than what happened in Asia because it is not just an Asian problem. It becomes a global problem and it feeds back between the emerging world and the developed world.

Now what are the probabilities on those? Well, hopefully the last scenario is not very probable, but it is not zero either. I think it is probably 10% or 15% — something like that. And then I would say the moderate scenario with some bumpiness and maybe some countries getting into trouble and so on, that is probably fairly likely with a wide range of possibilities. And that is probably maybe 50%-60%. And then I think the good scenario is probably the remainder, which would be 25%-30%, depending on how we fix the [probabilities] on the other two. But there is a huge range of possibilities out there, and I think the real problem is that nobody really quite knows how it is going to play out.

Knowledge@Wharton: And then there is always the risk that things just happen too fast. Even if authorities know the right thing to do, or think they know the right thing to do, and want to do the right thing, the markets are just moving at a lightning fast speed and they can’t get ahead of it.

Allen: Right. And that would be part of the worst-case scenario. They simply lose control.

Knowledge@Wharton: What do you think our listeners should understand about conditions in emerging markets right now that is not coming through so clearly in the mainstream business press?

Allen: We hear a lot about asset prices bubbles and so on, but there is not much of a discussion of, if that actually has been happening, what does it mean? How is it going to play out? And I think that that’s the thing that’s missing from the business press — a discussion of what the alternative way of thinking about these issues is. If you go back to the crisis of 2007, there is no official narrative of exactly what happened other than that some people — in the U.S. for example — would argue that it was a problem in the mortgage market. But that’s not what happened in Spain or Ireland. What we saw was asset prices were simply way out of line. When they adjusted, it caused these big problems and that created even more problems.

The big issue now is have we done the same thing again? And I do not think that is being discussed in a serious way. People still think about the world very much in terms of standard macroeconomic models, but we seem to be in a very different world than that and financial stability is at the center. The distortion of asset prices through central bank monetary policies and so forth is something we do not have much understanding of, although it seems to be at the heart of what happened in 2007 and 2008.

I think what is missing is a discussion of where we are at in that process. Does it really make that much sense that the stock market went up 30% last year? Why did real estate prices in Brazil double in Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro in a couple of years? What exactly is happening here and what is going to happen as we unwind and try to get back to some kind of normality in terms of interest rates?

Knowledge@Wharton: Given all the players and the complexity, what do you think is the most likely thing? Is it that we muddle along until there is a big problem? Or is there enough understanding and forethought going into this to start to provide some kind of a more orderly unwinding? What do you see happening? And what do you see happening going forward?

Allen: Well as we were discussing with the scenarios, I think there is sort of a good chance — maybe 50%-60% — that we have a bumpy ride but we do not have any catastrophes….

Hopefully that will be the worst that will happen. But we do have the worst-case scenario there. That is a possibility. I think that the comments that you made in your question about things happening at lightning speed — that can all easily play out. There is a lot of money that can move around very, very quickly. And these are very difficult calls to make on how to invest the funds. Things can change dramatically with these kinds of foreign exchange reserves, cross border flows and so on. We have not really seen these kinds of orders or magnitude of flow internationally before, I would say.

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U.S. equities closed with modest gains last week, as the S&P 500 overcame Monday’s decline, the largest one-day percentage loss since June 2013.(1) The weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales data drove the sell-off on Monday, exacerbating the focus on slowing momentum for the U.S. recovery. The impact of adverse weather complicates the picture. Also, although January non-farm payroll missed expectations, there were more upbeat indications from the household survey.

Anticipate Fluctuations but Stay Focused on Fundamentals

Bear market supporters have been talking about the scenarios of a combination of emerging market weakness and the removal of QE stimulus, and investors seem concerned. As discussed in our 2014 outlook, we expect this to be a volatile year as the environment transitions from one dominated by macro forces to more micro influences. We believe the recent weakness is a normal part of a healthy bull market. Although stocks have rebounded slightly over the last few days, we do not discount the possibility for further softness.

We think this is a correction rather than a more significant symptom for several reasons: U.S. earnings on average are coming in better than expected, U.S. fiscal drag is abating, Europe appears to be strengthening, global monetary policy is still broadly accommodative, inflation and bond yields are relatively low and short-term equity fundamentals are fairly strong and improving.

Weekly Top Themes

1. The January ISM Manufacturing survey declined from 56.5 to 51.3. (2) This is only the fourth time in the past 20 years that there has been a decrease of more than 5 points.

2. Payroll employment rose by a disappointing 113,000 in January, after weatherrelated weakness in December. (3) However, more encouraging elements surfaced this month as manufacturing job growth reaccelerated, business services recovered to near the recent trend and earnings and hours were both stronger. Also, the unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, the lowest level since October 2008.

3. Although it may be early to suggest an inflection point in sales and earnings growth, the trend may have improved over the second half of 2013. (4) 4Q13 earnings growth is on track to be the best quarter in two years as margins remain solid.

4. With the S&P 500 decline of roughly 6% since mid-January, about 50% of the companies experienced a decline of more than 10%. (5) We expect a choppy, bottoming process for equity markets.

5. In every mid-term election year since 1962, the S&P 500 has experienced an intra-year average decline of 18%. (6) From that intra-year low, the S&P 500 has increased every time in the following 12 months, with an average gain of 32%.

The Big Picture

Our economic view remains that we are mid-cycle — a transition from easy to less easy monetary policy — with fears receding and confidence increasing. In our opinion, equities remain the asset class to hold. Stocks were overbought at the start of the year and thus were ripe for a pullback after disappointing news. However, the global economy is slowly getting healthier and risk assets should generally grind their way higher over the next 12 months. Many emerging market economies will continue to face a period of adjustment, but underlying economic fundamentals are reasonably solid overall. Therefore, we do not see a threat to the U.S.-led economic recovery in the developed world. We are constructive on the outlook and maintain an overweight stance in equities. Since top and bottom-line performance continues to improve, returns should be solid following the recent pullback. However, equity trends are likely to be choppy, given growth and policy uncertainty. Equities are no longer cheap, but they are also not expensive, and valuation risk is not elevated if the U.S. and global economic recovery stays on track. The United States is in the unique position of having abundant and low cost energy, as well as an underutilized workforce. In the long-run, the improving health of our federal budget, banking system, credit markets and economy should drive stocks higher.

 

1 Source: Morningstar Direct, as of 2/7/14. 2 Source: January 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business,® February 3, 2014, http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm. 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation – January 2014,” February 7, 2014, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. 4 Source: FactSet, “Earnings Insight,” February 7, 2014. 5 Source: MorningstarDirect; Strategas Research Partners, as of 2/7/14. 6 Source: Barrons, “The Stock Market Rises: Trust the Bounce?,” February 4, 2014, http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/02/04/ the-stock-market-rebound-trust-the-bounce/

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic economy. Euro STOXX 50 Index is Europe’s leading Blue-chip index for the Eurozone and covers 50 stocks from 12 Eurozone countries. FTSE 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index (DAX Index) is a total return index of 30 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. FTSE MIB Index is an index of the 40 most liquid and capitalized stocks listed on the Borsa Italiana. Nikkei 225 Index is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index ex-U.S. is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets minus the United States. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.

RISKS AND OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS

The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Noninvestment-grade bonds involve heightened credit risk, liquidity risk, and potential for default. Foreign investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Nuveen Asset Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and an affiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc.

(c) Nuveen Asset Management

www.nuveen.com

 

 

 

[description] => U.S. equities closed with modest gains last week, as the S&P 500 overcame Monday’s decline, the largest one-day percentage loss since June 2013. The weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales data drive the sell-off on Monday, exacerbating the focus on slowing momentum for the U.S. recovery. The impact of adverse weather complicates the picture. Also, although January non-farm payroll missed expectations, there were more upbeat indications for the household survey. [author] => Bob Doll [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 320 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 18:46:40 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-20 20:34:24 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 92 [hits] => 0 ) [2] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 2 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13223 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => Market Outlook [slug] => alexander_021014 [fulltext] =>

What are the odds?

Despite the inverted gyrations of the stock market during the past three weeks, my market overview continues to be moderately bullish, of course with specific reservations about investors' unbridled carryover of unrealistic expectations borne out of last year's performance.  The market's configuration supports my view that if we're not at an interim top in valuations, we're close; if we're not initiating a consolidation of massive proportions, we're certainly consolidating modestly; and if we're not fully invested in the sectors that drove the market in 2013, there is plenty of opportunity to sector allocate into those which represent laggard's upside potential.

The Federal Reserve, under its new Chairperson Janet Yellen, has indicated that it will be loathe to change horses in mid-stream, opting to "go-slow" on easing its accomodative monetary policies.  Nevertheless, the "unwinding' of restrictive monetary policy will begin, has begun, and the market last week found itself in a schizophrenic morass of "are we alright or are we not?"   One doesn't want to be in the path of that boulder once it starts rolling downhill.   The equity markets have become a default investment option, and, as discussed in last week's piece, have replaced the bond market as a viable yield alternative.  From a strategic point of view that latter fact is particularly vexing because equities, despite their "default" status, are still extremely volatile, risky, and overvalued at present.  At what level does valuation have to be before it ignites suppressed investor anxiety?

We've come close to answering that question during the past month.  Already, lackluster earnings reports have impeded certain stock's advance.  Most observers still defer to a "wait and see what the consumer does" motif, even as wages dissipate, unemployment floats at (still) too high a level, and retail stock speculation plays second fiddle to institution's insatiable appetite for risk.  While slow growth is preferable to "no-growth", conservative estimates for this year's industrial gross output are far from exuberant.  I see no particular signs of an eroding economy, but nothing which indicates that 2014 will enable a breakout of historic proportions.  And certainly, I cannot create a quantitative multiplier that justifies a magnitudinal upside potential for stock performance equal to last year.

Therefore, my investment highlight for this coming year will to be to deploy cash reserves to maximize dividend yield and capital gains, and to find opportunity in defensive or back-of-the-cycle sectors that mirror the demographic themes of our time, such as global telecommunications, biotech, infrastructure, agriculture, and alternative energy.

Bringing it home

All in all, waiting for the consumer to return to economic solvency is a wise approach.  Typically, consumer spending stimulates growth in Cyclicals.  While the markets consolidate, we are seeing a stall in consumer brands and a possible reversal in their market leadership.  The current bull expansion is a rough tapestry of traditional blue chips, speculation in high tech, and one-off opportunistic speculation.  The deeper the rally goes, the more I expect to see the aforementioned "demographic sector shift".

We also cannot ignore how dependent the United States is upon other nations, and their fiscal and monetary choices, for its economic stability.  As a result of a half-decade of global austerity to prevent a deepening of a borrowing and credit crisis, policy makers are now faced with the unenviable choice of closing the capital spigot or risking a destabilizing fiscal event of unknown consequences. We just experienced one of the most volatile  weeks in currency markets in the last 5 years. My analysis will focus carefully upon the US dollar's global exchange rate during this monetary transition.  A delicate balance exists in this new world order, in which "leadership" is a transitory thing, allocated usually by the concentration of natural resources, consumer equity, and industrial productivity. Disequilibrium is more the norm, as money flows from continent to continent, developed nations to emerging markets, and hopefully back again.  A geopolitical question of our day might be "from what source is power and influence emanating, and for what duration?"

Thus, the pullback I had been forecasting and positioning portfolios for has occurred in January.  Year to date, the US averages are down about five percent. Cyclicality does not know the date, or calendar position of its occurrence; it happens because of vectors that share common inflection points.  Bear in mind, whether a consolidation is rotational, massive, or insignificant, the data indicated that it was to be expected.  Our focus is to prepare our clients for the after-effects of a capitulation, particularly a shift in investor confidence and a breakdown of the hubris that the previous year created.

To assume a cyclical swing in momentum is a lot better than not adjusting beforehand for its possibility.  We have always based our portfolio modeling on the theory that markets are parabolic, moving in defined waves.  Today, at this top, a momentum shift is due.  For the time being, I'm comfortable dipping only a couple of toes in the water.  

 

Alexander Capital L.P., 17 State Street, 5th Floor, New York, New York 10004 646-564-2299

 

(c) Alexander Capital

www.alexandercapital

 

 

 

 

[description] => Despite the inverted gyrations of the stock market during the past three weeks, my market overview continues to be moderately bullish, of course with specific reservations about investors’ unbridled carryover of unrealistic expectations borne out of last year’s performance. [author] => Scotty C. George [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 19 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 19:24:04 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-20 10:20:02 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 91 [hits] => 0 ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 3 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13224 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => Two Reasons for Value to Outperform in 2014 [slug] => heartland_021014 [fulltext] =>

Growth has outperformed value for nearly six years—the longest stretch of outperformance since 1932. In fact, growth’s outperformance has reached a greater-than-one standard deviation event versus the long-term average.

Description: Russell-3000-Growth-Less-Russell-3000-Value.gif

Could growth continue to outperform? Could it accelerate? Could we see what we saw during the dot-com era leading up to 2000? We would not rule this out. But we think the trend is more likely to turn in value’s favor. Two potential catalysts are especially relevant.

The first relates to Financials, which typically have a larger allocation in the value benchmarks. For example, as of December 31, 2013, Financials represented 29.8% of the Russell 3000® Value Index, compared to only 5.5% of the Russell 3000® Growth Index.

We believe the relative performance of Financials has been suppressed by quantitative easing. We expect the Fed’s QE tapering to be positive for the spread between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 30-day Treasury bill. A steeper spread should be good for the Financials’ relative performance, and therefore good for value versus growth.

Description: Treasury-Spread-&-Financials-Performance.gif

Second, although the outlook for the consumer is much better than in recent years, valuations in the Consumer Discretionary sector—a large component of growth indices—are concerning. The sector's two-year forward P/E is now above its long-term average.

Description: Consumer-Discretionary-Price-to-Earnings.gif

The group also appears to be moving somewhat irrationally. Until about two years ago, the sector had been tracking the Consumer Discretionary Revisions Index, which takes the number of upward two-year forward EPS revisions on a weekly basis and compares it to the number of downward revisions over the same period. More recently, revisions have been flat but the sector’s relative outperformance has been striking. This divergence is a red flag. The fundamentals may be less robust than has been discounted in stocks thus far.

Description: Consumer-Discretionary-Performance-vs.-Revision-Index.gif

Because Consumer Discretionary is so heavily represented in growth compared to value (19.6% of the Russell 3000® Growth Index, compared to only 6.9% of the Russell 3000® Value Index, as of December 31, 2013), a decline in the sector’s relative performance should also favor value versus growth.

Disclosure:

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

The statements and opinions expressed in the articles or appearances are those of the author. Any discussion of investments and investment strategies represents the Firm’s investments and portfolio managers' views as of the date created and are subject to change without notice.

Economic predictions are based on estimates and are subject to change.

Sector classifications are generally determined by referencing the Global Industry Classification Standard Codes developed by Standard & Poor’s and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Sector allocations are a percent of equity investments and subject to change.

Value and growth and investing have unique risks and potential rewards, and may not be suitable for all investors. A growth strategy emphasizes capital appreciation, whereas a value strategy emphasizes investments in companies believed to be undervalued. A growth strategy typically carries a higher risk of loss and potential reward than a value strategy.

Standard deviation is a measure of volatility of returns. It is calculating by determining the square root of the average squared deviation of the returns from the mean value of the return. The Russell 3000® Growth Index measures the performance of stocks in the Russell 3000 Index that have higher price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth characteristics. The Russell 3000® Value Index measures the performance of stocks in the Russell 3000 Index that have lower price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth characteristics. Quantitative easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Treasury yield is the effective rate of interest paid on a debt obligation issued by the U.S. Treasury for a specified length of time. A Treasury Bill, or T-bill, is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. government. It has a maturity of less than one year. T-bills are sold in denominations of $1,000, up to a maximum purchase of $5 million. They and commonly have maturities of one month, three months, or six months. Ayield spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments. It is calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another. The price-to-earnings ratio (trailing) of a stock is calculated by dividing its current per-share price by its per-share earnings from the last four quarters. Earnings per share is the proportion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock.

 

(c) Heartland Advisors

www.heartlandadvisors.com

 

 

 

 

[description] => We’ve seen the longest period of growth outperformance since 1932, but the two catalysts could cause value to return to favor. First, tapering by the Fed should allow interest rates to normalize and thereby benefit the Financials sector. Second, there’s potential for a correction in the Consumer Discretionary sector, which appears overvalued: The group’s P/E is above the historical average and performance has tracked upward despite flat earnings revisions. [author] => Will Nasgovitz [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 462 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 21:27:49 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-10 21:28:33 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 54 [hits] => 0 ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 4 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13225 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => Volatility Should Persist, But Stick With Stocks [slug] => isharesblog_021014 [fulltext] =>

Markets Recover From Early-Week Losses

Markets traded in a volatile fashion last week before ending slightly higher. Investor attention was heavily focused on continuing turmoil in emerging markets and some weaker-than-expected economic reports in the U.S. Although stocks started the week on a down note, they managed to stage a late recovery that helped the major averages notch modest gains. By the numbers, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% on the week to end at 15,794, the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.8% to 1,797 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5% to 4,125. Fixed income markets also saw their share of movement, but ended the week little changed, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising slightly from 2.64% to 2.68%

 

Economic Growth Looks Dicier, But Don't Expect a Change in Fed Policy

For the second straight month, the jobs market report was disappointing. In January, only 113,000 new jobs were created, a number that was significantly below the expected 180,000. Some of the weakness might be attributed to winter storms and extremely cold temperatures across the country, but sizeable drops in retail, education, health care and public sector jobs suggest the soft data cannot be attributed entirely to bad weather. The fact that construction jobs (arguably the most weather-sensitive segment of the labor market) showed improvements further emphasizes this point. If there was a silver lining to the report, it was that the unemployment rate fell another notch to 6.6%.

In addition to the weak employment report, we also saw a drop in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey. The headline data that showed a dip in manufacturing activity was bad enough, but even more troubling was the plunge in new orders, a data point that tends to be a strong leading indicator for overall economic growth. Specifically, new orders fell from an index level of 64.4 to 51.2. To put that in perspective, the size of this drop is close to what we saw in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. February's ISM survey will bear close watching. Unless we see a quick rebound (which would suggest January's collapse was weather related), first quarter growth may be disappointing.

Despite some arguments to the contrary, we do not believe the recent spate of negative economic news will be enough for the Fed to change course. We'll get additional perspective this week when new Fed Chair Janet Yellen provides her testimony to Congress, but we expect the central bank will stick with its policy of tapering the pace of asset purchases by $10 billion per meeting. We also expect the Fed will continue to focus on keeping short-term interest rates near zero for some time. With inflation still well below the Fed's target of 2%, and with persistent weakness in the labor market, the Fed is under no real pressure to increase rates.

Downturns Provide an Opportunity to Add to Stocks

 

Periods of weakness like we have seen over the past couple of weeks provide opportunities to selectively add to equity exposures while trimming bond holdings.

 

Although stocks did stage a late-week recovery,volatility has been rising. The VIX Index (a measure of market volatility often called the "fear index") jumped to a 13-month high of 21.44 last Monday when stocks endured their worst single-day losses since last June. In addition to rising volatility, fund flows are also pointing to a growing sense of investor risk aversion. So far this year, we have seen aggressive selling out of equity funds and into bond funds, a clear sign of investor unease.

Sentiment is more uneven than it was at the end of 2013, but it is important to put all of this in perspective. Even at the market lows on Monday, the peak-to-trough downturn was still well below the 10% threshold that is usually associated with a "market correction." Also, while volatility is higher now than it was last year, it has merely reverted to its long-term average.

Looking ahead, given lackluster U.S. economic data and ongoing issues in emerging markets, we expect that markets will remain more volatile than they were in 2013. Even so, we continue to believe stocks offer better value than bonds (a view reinforced by the market recovery we saw on Thursday and Friday). We do expect equity gains will be more muted this year than last year and the ride will be rockier, but we would also suggest that periods of weakness like we have seen over the past couple of weeks provide opportunities to selectively add to equity exposures while trimming bond holdings.

 


 

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of February 10, 2014, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

©2014 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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(c) iSharesBlog

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[description] => Volatility rose last week and is now close to its long-term average. Economic data has softened, but we do not believe the Federal Reserve will change course. Investors may want to consider adding to equity positions during periods of weakness. [author] => Russ Koesterich [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 234 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 21:31:35 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-10 21:33:12 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 55 [hits] => 0 ) [5] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 6 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13227 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => What Would a Stronger Dollar Mean for Global Markets? [slug] => invesco_021014 [fulltext] =>

As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, we’re often asked how this affects our view of international markets and risk. The short answer is that it doesn’t. We’re long-term, bottom-up stock pickers, so we’re primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting.

Emerging Asia/Latin America

Fed tapering and the strengthening US dollar are having an impact on emerging markets. Capital is flowing out of these markets as investors increase their allocation to developed markets, and their currencies are weakening, causing current account deficits to become problematic in many countries — Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Thailand to name a few.  As a result, these countries are taking actions to stabilize their currencies: raising interest rates, cutting government subsidies, restricting imports and more.  These moves are creating near term difficulties because economic growth has already been decelerating, and these actions place even more downward pressure on economic growth.

When investors flee emerging markets, currencies weaken and valuations compress.  For long-term investors, this creates the opportunity to buy high-quality businesses with good long-term growth prospects at good valuations.

Europe

Historically, a stronger US dollar had not had much of an impact on performance in Europe, as exporters become more competitive and their foreign-currency-based earnings become more profitable. So, we’re seeing net positives for the region in terms of faster earnings growth rates, greater competitiveness and stronger foreign currency-based earnings. The element of growth, and how the market choses to value this growth, is generally more important than the small loss on the currency directly.

Conclusion

It’s difficult to predict the full implications for US investors of a stronger or weaker US dollar. For example, in 2013 the Japanese yen fell about 17% against the dollar, but Japanese equities still returned more than 26% in dollar terms. In contrast, the euro rose by nearly 5% against the dollar, and yet the MSCI Europe Index also returned more than 25% in dollar terms.

So, historically, we have not hedged currencies, nor do we invest simply because we expect currency movements to have a positive impact on a business.  However, we understand the impact of currency movements on the economy and how this flows through the financial statements of businesses.  We use these impacts to identify potential risks to our holdings, evaluate whether we have the appropriate level of downside protection, and make sure our investment thesis remains intact.

Important information

The MSCI Europe Growth Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of European growth stocks. An investment cannot be made directly in an index.

Past performance cannot guarantee comparable future results.

The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.

The dollar value of foreign investments will be affected by changes in the exchange rates between the dollar and the currencies in which those investments are traded.

The performance of an investment concentrated in issuers of a certain region or country is expected to be closely tied to conditions within that region and to be more volatile than more geographically diversified funds.

The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation of the suitability of any investment strategy for a particular investor. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.

NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE  NO BANK GUARANTEE

All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted.

Invesco Distributors, Inc. is a US distributor for retail mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, institutional money market funds and unit investment trusts.

Invesco unit investment trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc. and broker dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. These Invesco entities are indirect, wholly owned subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd.

©2014 Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved.

blog.invesco.us.com

 

 

[description] => As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, we’re often asked how this affects our view of international markets and risk. The short answer is that it doesn’t. We’re long-term, bottom-up stock pickers, so we’re primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting. 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[filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [__default] => Array ( [session.counter] => 1 [session.timer.start] => 1513359073 [session.timer.last] => 1513359073 [session.timer.now] => 1513359073 [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object ( [commentaries] => stdClass Object ( [limitstart] => 2420 [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc ) ) ) ) [user] => JUser Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 0 [name] => [username] => [email] => [password] => [password_clear] => [block] => [sendEmail] => 0 [registerDate] => [lastvisitDate] => [activation] => [params] => [groups] => Array ( [0] => 9 ) [guest] => 1 [lastResetTime] => [resetCount] => [requireReset] => [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( ) ) [_authGroups:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 ) [_authLevels:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 [1] => 1 ) [_authActions:protected] => [_errorMsg:protected] => [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) [aid] => 0 ) ) ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [jrequest] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [server] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8 [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31 [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29 [SERVER_PORT] => 80 [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95 [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764 [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1 [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0 [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420 [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420 [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php [PHP_SELF] => /index.php [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875 [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [session] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [__default] => Array ( [session.counter] => 1 [session.timer.start] => 1513359073 [session.timer.last] => 1513359073 [session.timer.now] => 1513359073 [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object ( [commentaries] => stdClass Object ( [limitstart] => 2420 [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc ) ) ) ) [user] => JUser Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 0 [name] => [username] => [email] => [password] => [password_clear] => [block] => [sendEmail] => 0 [registerDate] => [lastvisitDate] => [activation] => [params] => [groups] => Array ( [0] => 9 ) [guest] => 1 [lastResetTime] => [resetCount] => [requireReset] => [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( ) ) [_authGroups:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 ) [_authLevels:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 [1] => 1 ) [_authActions:protected] => [_errorMsg:protected] => [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) [aid] => 0 ) ) ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [jrequest] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [server] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8 [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31 [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29 [SERVER_PORT] => 80 [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95 [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764 [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1 [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0 [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420 [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420 [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php [PHP_SELF] => /index.php [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875 [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [session] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [__default] => Array ( [session.counter] => 1 [session.timer.start] => 1513359073 [session.timer.last] => 1513359073 [session.timer.now] => 1513359073 [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object ( [commentaries] => stdClass Object ( [limitstart] => 2420 [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc ) ) ) ) [user] => JUser Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 0 [name] => [username] => [email] => [password] => [password_clear] => [block] => [sendEmail] => 0 [registerDate] => [lastvisitDate] => [activation] => [params] => [groups] => Array ( [0] => 9 ) [guest] => 1 [lastResetTime] => [resetCount] => [requireReset] => [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( ) ) [_authGroups:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 ) [_authLevels:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 [1] => 1 ) [_authActions:protected] => [_errorMsg:protected] => [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) [aid] => 0 ) ) ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [jrequest] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id 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Capital flight from emerging markets has been accelerating in recent weeks ($6 billion alone in the week ending February 5). Turkey is the poster child, but the exodus is also happening in India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and others – mostly from equity markets. This “hot money” is moving out over concerns that asset bubbles have built up, and that emerging market economic growth is now slowing. The slowdown is partly a result of tighter money in the wake of the Fed’s tapering plans and a decelerating economy in China, many believe. To better understand the risks to the global financial system, Knowledge@Wharton spoke with Wharton finance professor Franklin Allen in this podcast.

An edited transcript of the conversation follows.

Knowledge@Wharton: To give a bit of context, there has been a lot of capital flight out of emerging markets in recent weeks. Turkey is the poster child, but it is also happening in countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa. For a long time, strong economic growth in emerging markets kept that money flowing in. Now, those growth prospects — relative to the more developed countries — look to be sagging, and that money is starting to rush out. And with financial liberalization, that often means there are fewer capital controls to prevent it from leaving quickly.

Some emerging market central banks are responding by raising interest rates to try and keep the money in. Of course, that has a big downside: Higher rates make it tougher for businesses to get loans. And so far, those higher interest rates do not seem to be doing much to keep it in. This is mostly equity money leaving at this point. Eventually, that could bleed into debt issues.

All of this is partly a response [many observers say] to the Fed’s aim to tighten the money supply — to taper quantitative easing — and also to the slowdown in China, which could affect emerging markets very heavily. Is this the dynamic that you see out there? And, if so, what is causing it in your view? And how far along in the process do you think we are?

Franklin Allen: I think it is important to start with a somewhat broader view of what is happening. What happened over the last few years is that a lot of money went from low interest rate countries — particularly the U.S., but also from Europe and Japan and other places — to the emerging markets. These are the so-called carry trades that we have heard so much about. And they basically distorted a lot of asset prices in those countries. Just to take one example, if you look at what has happened to real estate prices in Brazil, they have rocketed the last two or three years. And yet that does not seem to be the result of how well Brazil is doing because actually they have had problems because the money flowing in has pushed up the exchange rate and made it difficult for Brazilian manufacturers, for example, to compete. Brazil has actually had fairly slow growth.

I think this is all a part of what many people have worried about, which is there have been what people loosely call asset price bubbles. Now that things are tightening up, what we are beginning to see is some withdrawal, some worrying about whether prices are correct or not. And this is the start of a process, which will certainly — to some degree at least –continue in the emerging countries, but will also gradually spread to other assets as we go further and further into tapering, and then eventually have interest rates start to rise.

Knowledge@Wharton: Do you think this is essentially a cyclical thing and that it is going to end up being an orderly take down — a natural process — for financial assets to flow back and forth to where they get the highest return?

Allen: No, I do not think that this is cyclical, although there is obviously a part of it that is…. We have had asset prices distorted by, what is now many years of these low interest rates. And the notion was, well, the emerging countries should be able to sterilize the inflows and deal with them, but in fact it is very difficult to do. These rises in asset prices, particularly real estate in many countries, if they are reversed it is going to cause financial stability problems in the same way we had in the U.S., Spain and Ireland. I think that those are the dangers. The trouble is we do not really know what asset prices should be because we have had these very easy money policies for so long now.

Knowledge@Wharton: For these countries I guess the danger is that they try to raise interest rates to prevent capital leaving so fast. That hurts their economy further. I suppose there is a danger of a run on their currencies similar to the kinds of things that happened during the Asian financial crisis [in the late 1990s]. Not to say that it is at that stage, or necessarily even heading there, but the dynamic seems to be similar. And then, of course, once the markets start to raid one country, then they start to look at who the next victim is and you get this domino effect. How big of a risk is that kind of thing? And could you just talk about what those risks look like right now?

Allen: Well, again, I think there are financial stability risks as you raise interest rates. And Turkey raised them a lot, but other countries raised them varying amounts. But as you start seeing big raises in interest rates, long-term assets are going to fall in price. And, if it is real estate and the banks lend against that real estate, then that causes problems in the banks.

All of these things accumulate and people starting to wonder whether they should get their money out now. And then that creates the dynamic, which you just described, that they are going to expect further falls and we get into these very bad self-fulfilling prophecies…. I think we are still some way away from that, but we have only just started tapering. We aren’t even at the start of any of the developed countries really raising interest rates. And I think we still have a tremendously long way to go before we get back to some kind of normality where we do not have this very easy money in so many countries.

Knowledge@Wharton: Partly what is happening is that financial markets have become so globalized that, of course, they are interacting more than ever. The Fed tapers a little bit and you seem immediately to get results in some of these countries that investors worry may not be able to keep up the returns that they have been getting.

And, yet, there does not seem to be any one country, or any body, that has control over it. It is a real network without any real dominant player. The U.S. is obviously affecting a lot of things, but if this starts to slide out of control who is in charge? Is there anyone in charge? What could be done? Is there something the U.S. can do? Europe? Do they have an interest in this? Or will we have to sit back and watch a mini or maxi Asian financial crisis all over again?

Allen: I think it will be somewhat different than [back] then because there were these severe problems of them having borrowed too much — the firms and banks — in foreign currencies, and the unwinding of that was very unwieldy. Now, fortunately, we have central bank swaps as a way of countering that. Now, the big problem with that is that they did this arrangement [and] they kept China out of that. And I think they should not have done that. They should have had China included. But that is a big antidote for the kinds of very serious problems we had in a global sense.

But I do think that there is a breakdown in monetary coordination. Raghuram Rajan [governor of the Reserve Bank of India, and former chief economic adviser to India's Ministry of Finance and chief economist at the International Monetary Fund] was complaining about this a few days ago. There is a sense in which the global governance mechanism for financial affairs does not work well because the emerging countries are so excluded from it.

And so when they face problems, there is not a good way of trying to solve them, I would say, because the IMF is dominated by the Americans and the Europeans. And then we have this awkward switching back and forth between the G7, G8 and the G20. And it is never quite clear which group is in control. Because the G7 and G8 do not include China or any of these countries like Brazil or India and so on, even though they have massive economies. The G20 does, but they do not really seem to be able to make decisions with so many people around the table so to speak. We do not have a good governance mechanism at the moment to deal with these kinds of issues….

Knowledge@Wharton: A lot the countries that we are talking about here are in Asia. So one thinks back to the Asian financial crisis and you mentioned some similarities and differences. A lot of those countries  have more foreign currency reserves then they did back then, so, they would not be quite so vulnerable to runs on the currency as they once were. Also, the swap mechanism that you mentioned, could you just describe the mechanics of that in simple terms? Is that the central bank swapping assets to balance out where currencies values are?

Allen: The basic idea is, if you have, for example, Korean banks that have liabilities in dollars, they will need to get ahold of dollars. And it may be difficult for them to do that if the markets are in turmoil. Central bank swaps allow for the Fed to provide dollars to the Bank of Korea, which provides some collateral for that. And then the Bank of Korea can lend to its banks in dollars and take on the credit risk. That was a very successful mechanism in the recent financial crisis and it is one of the reasons we did not have stresses of the kind we had in the Asian financial crisis. So that is a big positive.

I think the other big factor is China, because China has these massive foreign exchange reserves. They have $3.66 trillion dollars now. And one of the things that we may start seeing is that, if countries get in to trouble, rather than going to the IMF or some of the other more traditional institutions, they may just go straight to the Peoples Bank of China and ask for loans from them. Now that may in itself lead to some issues about how they get hold of those dollars and so on, but I think we may see some interesting dynamics, which we have not seen before — both politically and economically.

Knowledge@Wharton: Can you discuss which countries are most vulnerable when it comes to their banking systems? And also, given that in places like Europe and the U.S., the banks are probably heavily invested in those countries, what is the potential blow back to them? I am thinking of Europe in particular.

Allen: Clearly there are a lot of cross border flows…. This is the financial stability problem. If you look at countries that have had big real estate booms — and many of them had one — those asset prices may fall significantly. We may see loans go bad and so on. And many of these countries have not only economic problems, but they have political problems. [For example,] in Turkey and Thailand — and India is just about to have a big election — there are a lot of political issues in addition [to economic challenges.]. So that puts the whole system under stress.

Which are the countries with the worst situation? I think it is difficult to say without a very detailed examination. This is not like Europe, where we are going to see an asset quality review this year. It is difficult to predict exactly where the problems will be — but I think it is the countries which have a combination of economic and political problems that will tend to see problems, if they occur. It is not certain that they will occur. Maybe the asset prices have not been that distorted and things will be fine. That certainly seems to be what many market participants and many people in the official sector believe.

Knowledge@Wharton: Maybe a good way to put this whole thing in perspective is to let me ask you to provide what you see as the best case, middle case and worst case scenarios. And could you give some kind of a percentage weighting to each?

Allen: The best-case scenario is that things quiet down. Tapering goes ahead. The Chinese economy does not slow down significantly. They have no problems in the shadow banking system. Interest rates start to rise maybe in a few quarters’ time. That happens slowly over a long period and there are no financial stability problems anywhere. I think that is the rosy scenario. I think that is what the official sector is hoping for.

The moderate scenario is we have a bumpy ride and we see more of these kinds of events that we have seen in the last few days and weeks. But we do not see anything particularly catastrophic. Maybe a few countries have severe problems. Maybe somewhere, like Turkey or Brazil, has a serious problem. But, by and large, we do not have a worldwide sort of financial stability problem.

The worst-case scenario is that asset prices are badly distorted. We see big adjustments and then we see overshooting because of some of the self-fulfilling kinds of prophecies that people start anticipating. Exchange rates are going to go down below what would be the long-run rates … and we have a lot of turmoil and a lot of financial stability issues. And maybe that it is worse than what happened in Asia because it is not just an Asian problem. It becomes a global problem and it feeds back between the emerging world and the developed world.

Now what are the probabilities on those? Well, hopefully the last scenario is not very probable, but it is not zero either. I think it is probably 10% or 15% — something like that. And then I would say the moderate scenario with some bumpiness and maybe some countries getting into trouble and so on, that is probably fairly likely with a wide range of possibilities. And that is probably maybe 50%-60%. And then I think the good scenario is probably the remainder, which would be 25%-30%, depending on how we fix the [probabilities] on the other two. But there is a huge range of possibilities out there, and I think the real problem is that nobody really quite knows how it is going to play out.

Knowledge@Wharton: And then there is always the risk that things just happen too fast. Even if authorities know the right thing to do, or think they know the right thing to do, and want to do the right thing, the markets are just moving at a lightning fast speed and they can’t get ahead of it.

Allen: Right. And that would be part of the worst-case scenario. They simply lose control.

Knowledge@Wharton: What do you think our listeners should understand about conditions in emerging markets right now that is not coming through so clearly in the mainstream business press?

Allen: We hear a lot about asset prices bubbles and so on, but there is not much of a discussion of, if that actually has been happening, what does it mean? How is it going to play out? And I think that that’s the thing that’s missing from the business press — a discussion of what the alternative way of thinking about these issues is. If you go back to the crisis of 2007, there is no official narrative of exactly what happened other than that some people — in the U.S. for example — would argue that it was a problem in the mortgage market. But that’s not what happened in Spain or Ireland. What we saw was asset prices were simply way out of line. When they adjusted, it caused these big problems and that created even more problems.

The big issue now is have we done the same thing again? And I do not think that is being discussed in a serious way. People still think about the world very much in terms of standard macroeconomic models, but we seem to be in a very different world than that and financial stability is at the center. The distortion of asset prices through central bank monetary policies and so forth is something we do not have much understanding of, although it seems to be at the heart of what happened in 2007 and 2008.

I think what is missing is a discussion of where we are at in that process. Does it really make that much sense that the stock market went up 30% last year? Why did real estate prices in Brazil double in Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro in a couple of years? What exactly is happening here and what is going to happen as we unwind and try to get back to some kind of normality in terms of interest rates?

Knowledge@Wharton: Given all the players and the complexity, what do you think is the most likely thing? Is it that we muddle along until there is a big problem? Or is there enough understanding and forethought going into this to start to provide some kind of a more orderly unwinding? What do you see happening? And what do you see happening going forward?

Allen: Well as we were discussing with the scenarios, I think there is sort of a good chance — maybe 50%-60% — that we have a bumpy ride but we do not have any catastrophes….

Hopefully that will be the worst that will happen. But we do have the worst-case scenario there. That is a possibility. I think that the comments that you made in your question about things happening at lightning speed — that can all easily play out. There is a lot of money that can move around very, very quickly. And these are very difficult calls to make on how to invest the funds. Things can change dramatically with these kinds of foreign exchange reserves, cross border flows and so on. We have not really seen these kinds of orders or magnitude of flow internationally before, I would say.

[description] => Capital flight from emerging markets has been accelerating in recent weeks ($6 billion alone in the week ending February 5). Turkey is the poster child, but the exodus is also happening in India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and others – mostly from equity markets. This “hot money” is moving out over concerns that asset bubbles have built up, and that emerging market economic growth is now slowing. The slowdown is partly a result of tighter money in the wake of the Fed’s tapering plans and a decelerating economy in China, many believe. To better understand the risks to the global financial system, Knowledge@Wharton spoke with Wharton finance professor Franklin Allen in this podcast. [author] => [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 254 [published_on] => 2014-02-11 [digest_date] => 2014-02-11 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-11 20:31:37 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-12 18:08:02 [modified_by] => 947 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 76 [hits] => 0 ) [1] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 1 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13222 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => Growth and Policy Uncertainty Cause Choppy Markets [slug] => nuveen_021014 [fulltext] =>

U.S. equities closed with modest gains last week, as the S&P 500 overcame Monday’s decline, the largest one-day percentage loss since June 2013.(1) The weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales data drove the sell-off on Monday, exacerbating the focus on slowing momentum for the U.S. recovery. The impact of adverse weather complicates the picture. Also, although January non-farm payroll missed expectations, there were more upbeat indications from the household survey.

Anticipate Fluctuations but Stay Focused on Fundamentals

Bear market supporters have been talking about the scenarios of a combination of emerging market weakness and the removal of QE stimulus, and investors seem concerned. As discussed in our 2014 outlook, we expect this to be a volatile year as the environment transitions from one dominated by macro forces to more micro influences. We believe the recent weakness is a normal part of a healthy bull market. Although stocks have rebounded slightly over the last few days, we do not discount the possibility for further softness.

We think this is a correction rather than a more significant symptom for several reasons: U.S. earnings on average are coming in better than expected, U.S. fiscal drag is abating, Europe appears to be strengthening, global monetary policy is still broadly accommodative, inflation and bond yields are relatively low and short-term equity fundamentals are fairly strong and improving.

Weekly Top Themes

1. The January ISM Manufacturing survey declined from 56.5 to 51.3. (2) This is only the fourth time in the past 20 years that there has been a decrease of more than 5 points.

2. Payroll employment rose by a disappointing 113,000 in January, after weatherrelated weakness in December. (3) However, more encouraging elements surfaced this month as manufacturing job growth reaccelerated, business services recovered to near the recent trend and earnings and hours were both stronger. Also, the unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, the lowest level since October 2008.

3. Although it may be early to suggest an inflection point in sales and earnings growth, the trend may have improved over the second half of 2013. (4) 4Q13 earnings growth is on track to be the best quarter in two years as margins remain solid.

4. With the S&P 500 decline of roughly 6% since mid-January, about 50% of the companies experienced a decline of more than 10%. (5) We expect a choppy, bottoming process for equity markets.

5. In every mid-term election year since 1962, the S&P 500 has experienced an intra-year average decline of 18%. (6) From that intra-year low, the S&P 500 has increased every time in the following 12 months, with an average gain of 32%.

The Big Picture

Our economic view remains that we are mid-cycle — a transition from easy to less easy monetary policy — with fears receding and confidence increasing. In our opinion, equities remain the asset class to hold. Stocks were overbought at the start of the year and thus were ripe for a pullback after disappointing news. However, the global economy is slowly getting healthier and risk assets should generally grind their way higher over the next 12 months. Many emerging market economies will continue to face a period of adjustment, but underlying economic fundamentals are reasonably solid overall. Therefore, we do not see a threat to the U.S.-led economic recovery in the developed world. We are constructive on the outlook and maintain an overweight stance in equities. Since top and bottom-line performance continues to improve, returns should be solid following the recent pullback. However, equity trends are likely to be choppy, given growth and policy uncertainty. Equities are no longer cheap, but they are also not expensive, and valuation risk is not elevated if the U.S. and global economic recovery stays on track. The United States is in the unique position of having abundant and low cost energy, as well as an underutilized workforce. In the long-run, the improving health of our federal budget, banking system, credit markets and economy should drive stocks higher.

 

1 Source: Morningstar Direct, as of 2/7/14. 2 Source: January 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business,® February 3, 2014, http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm. 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation – January 2014,” February 7, 2014, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. 4 Source: FactSet, “Earnings Insight,” February 7, 2014. 5 Source: MorningstarDirect; Strategas Research Partners, as of 2/7/14. 6 Source: Barrons, “The Stock Market Rises: Trust the Bounce?,” February 4, 2014, http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/02/04/ the-stock-market-rebound-trust-the-bounce/

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic economy. Euro STOXX 50 Index is Europe’s leading Blue-chip index for the Eurozone and covers 50 stocks from 12 Eurozone countries. FTSE 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index (DAX Index) is a total return index of 30 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. FTSE MIB Index is an index of the 40 most liquid and capitalized stocks listed on the Borsa Italiana. Nikkei 225 Index is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index ex-U.S. is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets minus the United States. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.

RISKS AND OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS

The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Noninvestment-grade bonds involve heightened credit risk, liquidity risk, and potential for default. Foreign investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Nuveen Asset Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and an affiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc.

(c) Nuveen Asset Management

www.nuveen.com

 

 

 

[description] => U.S. equities closed with modest gains last week, as the S&P 500 overcame Monday’s decline, the largest one-day percentage loss since June 2013. The weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales data drive the sell-off on Monday, exacerbating the focus on slowing momentum for the U.S. recovery. The impact of adverse weather complicates the picture. Also, although January non-farm payroll missed expectations, there were more upbeat indications for the household survey. [author] => Bob Doll [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 320 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 18:46:40 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-20 20:34:24 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 92 [hits] => 0 ) [2] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 2 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13223 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => Market Outlook [slug] => alexander_021014 [fulltext] =>

What are the odds?

Despite the inverted gyrations of the stock market during the past three weeks, my market overview continues to be moderately bullish, of course with specific reservations about investors' unbridled carryover of unrealistic expectations borne out of last year's performance.  The market's configuration supports my view that if we're not at an interim top in valuations, we're close; if we're not initiating a consolidation of massive proportions, we're certainly consolidating modestly; and if we're not fully invested in the sectors that drove the market in 2013, there is plenty of opportunity to sector allocate into those which represent laggard's upside potential.

The Federal Reserve, under its new Chairperson Janet Yellen, has indicated that it will be loathe to change horses in mid-stream, opting to "go-slow" on easing its accomodative monetary policies.  Nevertheless, the "unwinding' of restrictive monetary policy will begin, has begun, and the market last week found itself in a schizophrenic morass of "are we alright or are we not?"   One doesn't want to be in the path of that boulder once it starts rolling downhill.   The equity markets have become a default investment option, and, as discussed in last week's piece, have replaced the bond market as a viable yield alternative.  From a strategic point of view that latter fact is particularly vexing because equities, despite their "default" status, are still extremely volatile, risky, and overvalued at present.  At what level does valuation have to be before it ignites suppressed investor anxiety?

We've come close to answering that question during the past month.  Already, lackluster earnings reports have impeded certain stock's advance.  Most observers still defer to a "wait and see what the consumer does" motif, even as wages dissipate, unemployment floats at (still) too high a level, and retail stock speculation plays second fiddle to institution's insatiable appetite for risk.  While slow growth is preferable to "no-growth", conservative estimates for this year's industrial gross output are far from exuberant.  I see no particular signs of an eroding economy, but nothing which indicates that 2014 will enable a breakout of historic proportions.  And certainly, I cannot create a quantitative multiplier that justifies a magnitudinal upside potential for stock performance equal to last year.

Therefore, my investment highlight for this coming year will to be to deploy cash reserves to maximize dividend yield and capital gains, and to find opportunity in defensive or back-of-the-cycle sectors that mirror the demographic themes of our time, such as global telecommunications, biotech, infrastructure, agriculture, and alternative energy.

Bringing it home

All in all, waiting for the consumer to return to economic solvency is a wise approach.  Typically, consumer spending stimulates growth in Cyclicals.  While the markets consolidate, we are seeing a stall in consumer brands and a possible reversal in their market leadership.  The current bull expansion is a rough tapestry of traditional blue chips, speculation in high tech, and one-off opportunistic speculation.  The deeper the rally goes, the more I expect to see the aforementioned "demographic sector shift".

We also cannot ignore how dependent the United States is upon other nations, and their fiscal and monetary choices, for its economic stability.  As a result of a half-decade of global austerity to prevent a deepening of a borrowing and credit crisis, policy makers are now faced with the unenviable choice of closing the capital spigot or risking a destabilizing fiscal event of unknown consequences. We just experienced one of the most volatile  weeks in currency markets in the last 5 years. My analysis will focus carefully upon the US dollar's global exchange rate during this monetary transition.  A delicate balance exists in this new world order, in which "leadership" is a transitory thing, allocated usually by the concentration of natural resources, consumer equity, and industrial productivity. Disequilibrium is more the norm, as money flows from continent to continent, developed nations to emerging markets, and hopefully back again.  A geopolitical question of our day might be "from what source is power and influence emanating, and for what duration?"

Thus, the pullback I had been forecasting and positioning portfolios for has occurred in January.  Year to date, the US averages are down about five percent. Cyclicality does not know the date, or calendar position of its occurrence; it happens because of vectors that share common inflection points.  Bear in mind, whether a consolidation is rotational, massive, or insignificant, the data indicated that it was to be expected.  Our focus is to prepare our clients for the after-effects of a capitulation, particularly a shift in investor confidence and a breakdown of the hubris that the previous year created.

To assume a cyclical swing in momentum is a lot better than not adjusting beforehand for its possibility.  We have always based our portfolio modeling on the theory that markets are parabolic, moving in defined waves.  Today, at this top, a momentum shift is due.  For the time being, I'm comfortable dipping only a couple of toes in the water.  

 

Alexander Capital L.P., 17 State Street, 5th Floor, New York, New York 10004 646-564-2299

 

(c) Alexander Capital

www.alexandercapital

 

 

 

 

[description] => Despite the inverted gyrations of the stock market during the past three weeks, my market overview continues to be moderately bullish, of course with specific reservations about investors’ unbridled carryover of unrealistic expectations borne out of last year’s performance. [author] => Scotty C. George [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 19 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 19:24:04 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-20 10:20:02 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 91 [hits] => 0 ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 3 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13224 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => Two Reasons for Value to Outperform in 2014 [slug] => heartland_021014 [fulltext] =>

Growth has outperformed value for nearly six years—the longest stretch of outperformance since 1932. In fact, growth’s outperformance has reached a greater-than-one standard deviation event versus the long-term average.

Description: Russell-3000-Growth-Less-Russell-3000-Value.gif

Could growth continue to outperform? Could it accelerate? Could we see what we saw during the dot-com era leading up to 2000? We would not rule this out. But we think the trend is more likely to turn in value’s favor. Two potential catalysts are especially relevant.

The first relates to Financials, which typically have a larger allocation in the value benchmarks. For example, as of December 31, 2013, Financials represented 29.8% of the Russell 3000® Value Index, compared to only 5.5% of the Russell 3000® Growth Index.

We believe the relative performance of Financials has been suppressed by quantitative easing. We expect the Fed’s QE tapering to be positive for the spread between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 30-day Treasury bill. A steeper spread should be good for the Financials’ relative performance, and therefore good for value versus growth.

Description: Treasury-Spread-&-Financials-Performance.gif

Second, although the outlook for the consumer is much better than in recent years, valuations in the Consumer Discretionary sector—a large component of growth indices—are concerning. The sector's two-year forward P/E is now above its long-term average.

Description: Consumer-Discretionary-Price-to-Earnings.gif

The group also appears to be moving somewhat irrationally. Until about two years ago, the sector had been tracking the Consumer Discretionary Revisions Index, which takes the number of upward two-year forward EPS revisions on a weekly basis and compares it to the number of downward revisions over the same period. More recently, revisions have been flat but the sector’s relative outperformance has been striking. This divergence is a red flag. The fundamentals may be less robust than has been discounted in stocks thus far.

Description: Consumer-Discretionary-Performance-vs.-Revision-Index.gif

Because Consumer Discretionary is so heavily represented in growth compared to value (19.6% of the Russell 3000® Growth Index, compared to only 6.9% of the Russell 3000® Value Index, as of December 31, 2013), a decline in the sector’s relative performance should also favor value versus growth.

Disclosure:

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

The statements and opinions expressed in the articles or appearances are those of the author. Any discussion of investments and investment strategies represents the Firm’s investments and portfolio managers' views as of the date created and are subject to change without notice.

Economic predictions are based on estimates and are subject to change.

Sector classifications are generally determined by referencing the Global Industry Classification Standard Codes developed by Standard & Poor’s and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Sector allocations are a percent of equity investments and subject to change.

Value and growth and investing have unique risks and potential rewards, and may not be suitable for all investors. A growth strategy emphasizes capital appreciation, whereas a value strategy emphasizes investments in companies believed to be undervalued. A growth strategy typically carries a higher risk of loss and potential reward than a value strategy.

Standard deviation is a measure of volatility of returns. It is calculating by determining the square root of the average squared deviation of the returns from the mean value of the return. The Russell 3000® Growth Index measures the performance of stocks in the Russell 3000 Index that have higher price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth characteristics. The Russell 3000® Value Index measures the performance of stocks in the Russell 3000 Index that have lower price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth characteristics. Quantitative easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Treasury yield is the effective rate of interest paid on a debt obligation issued by the U.S. Treasury for a specified length of time. A Treasury Bill, or T-bill, is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. government. It has a maturity of less than one year. T-bills are sold in denominations of $1,000, up to a maximum purchase of $5 million. They and commonly have maturities of one month, three months, or six months. Ayield spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments. It is calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another. The price-to-earnings ratio (trailing) of a stock is calculated by dividing its current per-share price by its per-share earnings from the last four quarters. Earnings per share is the proportion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock.

 

(c) Heartland Advisors

www.heartlandadvisors.com

 

 

 

 

[description] => We’ve seen the longest period of growth outperformance since 1932, but the two catalysts could cause value to return to favor. First, tapering by the Fed should allow interest rates to normalize and thereby benefit the Financials sector. Second, there’s potential for a correction in the Consumer Discretionary sector, which appears overvalued: The group’s P/E is above the historical average and performance has tracked upward despite flat earnings revisions. [author] => Will Nasgovitz [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 462 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 21:27:49 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-10 21:28:33 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 54 [hits] => 0 ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 4 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13225 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => Volatility Should Persist, But Stick With Stocks [slug] => isharesblog_021014 [fulltext] =>

Markets Recover From Early-Week Losses

Markets traded in a volatile fashion last week before ending slightly higher. Investor attention was heavily focused on continuing turmoil in emerging markets and some weaker-than-expected economic reports in the U.S. Although stocks started the week on a down note, they managed to stage a late recovery that helped the major averages notch modest gains. By the numbers, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% on the week to end at 15,794, the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.8% to 1,797 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5% to 4,125. Fixed income markets also saw their share of movement, but ended the week little changed, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising slightly from 2.64% to 2.68%

 

Economic Growth Looks Dicier, But Don't Expect a Change in Fed Policy

For the second straight month, the jobs market report was disappointing. In January, only 113,000 new jobs were created, a number that was significantly below the expected 180,000. Some of the weakness might be attributed to winter storms and extremely cold temperatures across the country, but sizeable drops in retail, education, health care and public sector jobs suggest the soft data cannot be attributed entirely to bad weather. The fact that construction jobs (arguably the most weather-sensitive segment of the labor market) showed improvements further emphasizes this point. If there was a silver lining to the report, it was that the unemployment rate fell another notch to 6.6%.

In addition to the weak employment report, we also saw a drop in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey. The headline data that showed a dip in manufacturing activity was bad enough, but even more troubling was the plunge in new orders, a data point that tends to be a strong leading indicator for overall economic growth. Specifically, new orders fell from an index level of 64.4 to 51.2. To put that in perspective, the size of this drop is close to what we saw in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. February's ISM survey will bear close watching. Unless we see a quick rebound (which would suggest January's collapse was weather related), first quarter growth may be disappointing.

Despite some arguments to the contrary, we do not believe the recent spate of negative economic news will be enough for the Fed to change course. We'll get additional perspective this week when new Fed Chair Janet Yellen provides her testimony to Congress, but we expect the central bank will stick with its policy of tapering the pace of asset purchases by $10 billion per meeting. We also expect the Fed will continue to focus on keeping short-term interest rates near zero for some time. With inflation still well below the Fed's target of 2%, and with persistent weakness in the labor market, the Fed is under no real pressure to increase rates.

Downturns Provide an Opportunity to Add to Stocks

 

Periods of weakness like we have seen over the past couple of weeks provide opportunities to selectively add to equity exposures while trimming bond holdings.

 

Although stocks did stage a late-week recovery,volatility has been rising. The VIX Index (a measure of market volatility often called the "fear index") jumped to a 13-month high of 21.44 last Monday when stocks endured their worst single-day losses since last June. In addition to rising volatility, fund flows are also pointing to a growing sense of investor risk aversion. So far this year, we have seen aggressive selling out of equity funds and into bond funds, a clear sign of investor unease.

Sentiment is more uneven than it was at the end of 2013, but it is important to put all of this in perspective. Even at the market lows on Monday, the peak-to-trough downturn was still well below the 10% threshold that is usually associated with a "market correction." Also, while volatility is higher now than it was last year, it has merely reverted to its long-term average.

Looking ahead, given lackluster U.S. economic data and ongoing issues in emerging markets, we expect that markets will remain more volatile than they were in 2013. Even so, we continue to believe stocks offer better value than bonds (a view reinforced by the market recovery we saw on Thursday and Friday). We do expect equity gains will be more muted this year than last year and the ride will be rockier, but we would also suggest that periods of weakness like we have seen over the past couple of weeks provide opportunities to selectively add to equity exposures while trimming bond holdings.

 


 

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of February 10, 2014, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

©2014 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.

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USR–3484

 

 

(c) iSharesBlog

www.blackrock.com

 

 

 

 

[description] => Volatility rose last week and is now close to its long-term average. Economic data has softened, but we do not believe the Federal Reserve will change course. Investors may want to consider adding to equity positions during periods of weakness. [author] => Russ Koesterich [legacyinterface_firm_id] => 234 [published_on] => 2014-02-10 [digest_date] => 2014-02-10 [access] => 1 [ordering] => 0 [post_to_apviewpoint] => 0 [post_to_rss] => 0 [post_to_legacy_database] => 1 [enabled] => 1 [created_on] => 2014-02-10 21:31:35 [created_by] => 944 [modified_on] => 2014-02-10 21:33:12 [modified_by] => 944 [checked_out_time] => 0000-00-00 00:00:00 [checked_out] => 0 [asset_id] => 55 [hits] => 0 ) [5] => stdClass Object ( [legacyinterface_commentary_id] => 6 [legacyinterface_template_id] => 9 [legacyinterface_record_id] => 13227 [apv_conversation_id] => [content_type] => market-commentary [title] => What Would a Stronger Dollar Mean for Global Markets? [slug] => invesco_021014 [fulltext] =>

As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, we’re often asked how this affects our view of international markets and risk. The short answer is that it doesn’t. We’re long-term, bottom-up stock pickers, so we’re primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting.

Emerging Asia/Latin America

Fed tapering and the strengthening US dollar are having an impact on emerging markets. Capital is flowing out of these markets as investors increase their allocation to developed markets, and their currencies are weakening, causing current account deficits to become problematic in many countries — Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Thailand to name a few.  As a result, these countries are taking actions to stabilize their currencies: raising interest rates, cutting government subsidies, restricting imports and more.  These moves are creating near term difficulties because economic growth has already been decelerating, and these actions place even more downward pressure on economic growth.

When investors flee emerging markets, currencies weaken and valuations compress.  For long-term investors, this creates the opportunity to buy high-quality businesses with good long-term growth prospects at good valuations.

Europe

Historically, a stronger US dollar had not had much of an impact on performance in Europe, as exporters become more competitive and their foreign-currency-based earnings become more profitable. So, we’re seeing net positives for the region in terms of faster earnings growth rates, greater competitiveness and stronger foreign currency-based earnings. The element of growth, and how the market choses to value this growth, is generally more important than the small loss on the currency directly.

Conclusion

It’s difficult to predict the full implications for US investors of a stronger or weaker US dollar. For example, in 2013 the Japanese yen fell about 17% against the dollar, but Japanese equities still returned more than 26% in dollar terms. In contrast, the euro rose by nearly 5% against the dollar, and yet the MSCI Europe Index also returned more than 25% in dollar terms.

So, historically, we have not hedged currencies, nor do we invest simply because we expect currency movements to have a positive impact on a business.  However, we understand the impact of currency movements on the economy and how this flows through the financial statements of businesses.  We use these impacts to identify potential risks to our holdings, evaluate whether we have the appropriate level of downside protection, and make sure our investment thesis remains intact.

Important information

The MSCI Europe Growth Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of European growth stocks. An investment cannot be made directly in an index.

Past performance cannot guarantee comparable future results.

The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.

The dollar value of foreign investments will be affected by changes in the exchange rates between the dollar and the currencies in which those investments are traded.

The performance of an investment concentrated in issuers of a certain region or country is expected to be closely tied to conditions within that region and to be more volatile than more geographically diversified funds.

The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation of the suitability of any investment strategy for a particular investor. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.

NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE  NO BANK GUARANTEE

All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted.

Invesco Distributors, Inc. is a US distributor for retail mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, institutional money market funds and unit investment trusts.

Invesco unit investment trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc. and broker dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. These Invesco entities are indirect, wholly owned subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd.

©2014 Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved.

blog.invesco.us.com

 

 

[description] => As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, we’re often asked how this affects our view of international markets and risk. The short answer is that it doesn’t. We’re long-term, bottom-up stock pickers, so we’re primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting. 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[_subject:protected] => FOFModelDispatcherBehavior Object *RECURSION* [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) ) [1] => FOFModelBehaviorAccess Object ( [_subject:protected] => FOFModelDispatcherBehavior Object *RECURSION* [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) [_state:protected] => [_methods:protected] => Array ( [onafterbuildquery] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforesave] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforedelete] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforecopy] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforepublish] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforehit] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforemove] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforereorder] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onbeforebuildquery] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onaftersave] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onafterdelete] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onaftercopy] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onafterpublish] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onafterhit] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onaftermove] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onafterreorder] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [onaftergetitem] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [__construct] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [update] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [__tostring] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [def] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [get] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [getproperties] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [geterror] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [geterrors] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [set] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [setproperties] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) [seterror] => Array ( [0] => 0 [1] => 1 ) ) [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) ) [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) [_basePath:protected] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface [_defaultModel:protected] => commentaries [_layout:protected] => default [_layoutExt:protected] => php [_layoutTemplate:protected] => _ [_path:protected] => Array ( [template] => Array ( [0] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentaries/ [1] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentaries/ [2] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentaries/ [3] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/views/commentaries/tmpl/ [4] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentary/ [5] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/views/commentary/tmpl/ [6] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentaries/ [7] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/views/commentaries/tmpl/ ) [helper] => Array ( [0] => /var/www/html/apcms/administrator/components/com_legacyinterface/helpers/ [1] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/helpers/ ) ) [_template:protected] => [_output:protected] => [_escape:protected] => htmlspecialchars [_charset:protected] => UTF-8 [config:protected] => Array ( [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [input] => FOFInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 [layout] => [task] => browse [directionTable] => asc [sortTable] => published_on [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc [savestate] => 1 [base_path] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [server] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8 [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31 [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29 [SERVER_PORT] => 80 [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95 [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764 [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1 [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0 [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420 [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420 [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php [PHP_SELF] => /index.php [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875 [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [session] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [__default] => Array ( [session.counter] => 1 [session.timer.start] => 1513359073 [session.timer.last] => 1513359073 [session.timer.now] => 1513359073 [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object ( [commentaries] => stdClass Object ( [limitstart] => 2420 [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc ) ) ) ) [user] => JUser Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 0 [name] => [username] => [email] => [password] => [password_clear] => [block] => [sendEmail] => 0 [registerDate] => [lastvisitDate] => [activation] => [params] => [groups] => Array ( [0] => 9 ) [guest] => 1 [lastResetTime] => [resetCount] => [requireReset] => [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( ) ) [_authGroups:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 ) [_authLevels:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 [1] => 1 ) [_authActions:protected] => [_errorMsg:protected] => [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) [aid] => 0 ) ) ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [jrequest] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [server] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8 [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31 [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29 [SERVER_PORT] => 80 [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95 [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764 [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1 [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0 [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420 [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420 [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php [PHP_SELF] => /index.php [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875 [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [session] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [__default] => Array ( [session.counter] => 1 [session.timer.start] => 1513359073 [session.timer.last] => 1513359073 [session.timer.now] => 1513359073 [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object ( [commentaries] => stdClass Object ( [limitstart] => 2420 [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc ) ) ) ) [user] => JUser Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 0 [name] => [username] => [email] => [password] => [password_clear] => [block] => [sendEmail] => 0 [registerDate] => [lastvisitDate] => [activation] => [params] => [groups] => Array ( [0] => 9 ) [guest] => 1 [lastResetTime] => [resetCount] => [requireReset] => [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( ) ) [_authGroups:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 ) [_authLevels:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 [1] => 1 ) [_authActions:protected] => [_errorMsg:protected] => [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) [aid] => 0 ) ) ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [jrequest] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [server] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8 [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31 [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29 [SERVER_PORT] => 80 [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95 [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764 [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1 [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0 [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420 [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420 [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php [PHP_SELF] => /index.php [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875 [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [session] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [__default] => Array ( [session.counter] => 1 [session.timer.start] => 1513359073 [session.timer.last] => 1513359073 [session.timer.now] => 1513359073 [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object ( [commentaries] => stdClass Object ( [limitstart] => 2420 [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc ) ) ) ) [user] => JUser Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 0 [name] => [username] => [email] => [password] => [password_clear] => [block] => [sendEmail] => 0 [registerDate] => [lastvisitDate] => [activation] => [params] => [groups] => Array ( [0] => 9 ) [guest] => 1 [lastResetTime] => [resetCount] => [requireReset] => [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( ) ) [_authGroups:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 ) [_authLevels:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 [1] => 1 ) [_authActions:protected] => [_errorMsg:protected] => [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) [aid] => 0 ) ) ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [jrequest] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [server] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8 [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31 [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29 [SERVER_PORT] => 80 [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95 [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764 [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1 [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0 [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420 [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420 [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php [PHP_SELF] => /index.php [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875 [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [session] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [__default] => Array ( [session.counter] => 1 [session.timer.start] => 1513359073 [session.timer.last] => 1513359073 [session.timer.now] => 1513359073 [session.client.browser] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [registry] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [com_legacyinterface] => stdClass Object ( [commentaries] => stdClass Object ( [limitstart] => 2420 [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc ) ) ) ) [user] => JUser Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 0 [name] => [username] => [email] => [password] => [password_clear] => [block] => [sendEmail] => 0 [registerDate] => [lastvisitDate] => [activation] => [params] => [groups] => Array ( [0] => 9 ) [guest] => 1 [lastResetTime] => [resetCount] => [requireReset] => [_params:protected] => Joomla\Registry\Registry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( ) ) [_authGroups:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 ) [_authLevels:protected] => Array ( [0] => 1 [1] => 1 ) [_authActions:protected] => [_errorMsg:protected] => [_errors:protected] => Array ( ) [aid] => 0 ) ) ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [jrequest] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) ) ) [template_path] => Array ( [0] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/views/commentaries/tmpl [1] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentaries [2] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/views/commentary/tmpl [3] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentary [4] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/views/commentaries/tmpl [5] => /var/www/html/apcms/templates/aptheme/html/com_legacyinterface/commentaries ) [helper_path] => Array ( [0] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface/helpers [1] => /var/www/html/apcms/administrator/components/com_legacyinterface/helpers ) [use_hypermedia] => ) [input:protected] => FOFInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 [layout] => [task] => browse [directionTable] => asc [sortTable] => published_on [filter_order] => published_on [filter_order_Dir] => desc [savestate] => 1 [base_path] => /var/www/html/apcms/components/com_legacyinterface ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( [get] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [post] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [cookie] => JInputCookie Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [files] => JInputFiles Object ( [decodedData:protected] => Array ( ) [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [env] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [request] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [start] => 2420 [limitstart] => 2420 [option] => com_legacyinterface [view] => commentaries [Itemid] => 616 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [server] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object [18] => script [19] => style [20] => title [21] => xml ) [attrBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => action [1] => background [2] => codebase [3] => dynsrc [4] => lowsrc ) ) [data:protected] => Array ( [HTTP_AUTHORIZATION] => [HTTP_HOST] => apdev.hubtech.tv [HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING] => x-gzip, gzip, deflate [HTTP_USER_AGENT] => CCBot/2.0 (http://commoncrawl.org/faq/) [HTTP_ACCEPT] => text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8 [HTTP_IF_MODIFIED_SINCE] => Fri, 20 Oct 2017 01:43:20 GMT [PATH] => /sbin:/usr/sbin:/bin:/usr/bin [SERVER_SIGNATURE] => [SERVER_SOFTWARE] => Apache/2.4.16 (Amazon) PHP/5.5.31 [SERVER_NAME] => apdev.hubtech.tv [SERVER_ADDR] => 10.28.13.29 [SERVER_PORT] => 80 [REMOTE_ADDR] => 54.82.56.95 [DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [REQUEST_SCHEME] => http [CONTEXT_PREFIX] => [CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT] => /var/www/html/apcms [SERVER_ADMIN] => ben@hubtech.tv [SCRIPT_FILENAME] => /var/www/html/apcms/index.php [REMOTE_PORT] => 60764 [GATEWAY_INTERFACE] => CGI/1.1 [SERVER_PROTOCOL] => HTTP/1.0 [REQUEST_METHOD] => GET [QUERY_STRING] => start=2420 [REQUEST_URI] => /?start=2420 [SCRIPT_NAME] => /index.php [PHP_SELF] => /index.php [REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT] => 1513359072.875 [REQUEST_TIME] => 1513359072 ) [inputs:protected] => Array ( ) ) [session] => JInput Object ( [options:protected] => Array ( ) [filter:protected] => JFilterInput Object ( [tagsArray] => Array ( ) [attrArray] => Array ( ) [tagsMethod] => 0 [attrMethod] => 0 [xssAuto] => 1 [tagBlacklist] => Array ( [0] => applet [1] => body [2] => bgsound [3] => base [4] => basefont [5] => embed [6] => frame [7] => frameset [8] => head [9] => html [10] => id [11] => iframe [12] => ilayer [13] => layer [14] => link [15] => meta [16] => name [17] => object